Dissecting the Numbers: Analysing UCAS’ 2025 January Equal Consideration Application Data

The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) published their 2025 January Equal Consideration application data last week, providing a mixed picture of optimism and concern.

In total, there has been a +1% increase in total applicants for the 2025 cycle. This increase was down to international applicants which saw a +2.7% increase, and those aged 18, which saw +2.1% increase in applicants. Mature learners saw a decrease of -6.4%, with actual numbers being even smaller than before the pandemic. However, this trend isn’t dissimilar to last year, which ended up seeing an increase in mature accepted applicants. It’s likely that this audience doesn’t always work to the January deadline and is more likely to apply later in the cycle.

It’s positive to see international interest in the UK returning, as well as the general number of applicants increasing. However, it’s more nuanced and complicated when looked at more closely. If we look at international numbers, for example, we can see that the increase in international students is only against higher tariff universities, which saw a +5.5% rise in applications. Mid to lower tariff institutions saw declines.

EU applicants are on the rise for the first time since 2019 (up by +0.3%), but this was purely led by a +15% increase from Ireland, which offset declines from France, Spain, and Germany. On a more hopeful note, there are some growing markets outside of the EU, with the top ones being Turkey (23.7%), Saudi Arabia (17.4%), USA (+12%) and China (9%).

In terms of declines in international applicants, South Africa (-19%), Malaysia (-12.4%), France (-7.6%), Hong Kong (-5.9%) and Singapore (-4.3%) saw the biggest decrease in applicants. It’s interesting to note that India also saw a small decline of -0.3%.

Regarding domestic applicants, Wales was the only market to see a decline year on year (YoY) (-0.3%), all other markets saw small uplifts. Whilst applications are at a record high (481,870 UK applicants), application rates have dropped in the UK for 18-year-olds. This is despite a population surge across this age group, with less than half of 18-year-old in the UK having applied for university this year (40.6%).

Whilst the actual numbers look strong, a closer look at the Jan deadline data reveals that the sector is still in an uncomfortable position. Internationally, the only institutions that are seeing meaningful

engagement are higher tariff ones. Domestically speaking, 18-year-olds are increasingly losing interest in university amidst a cost-of-living crisis and lesser employment opportunities than their generational predecessors.

It's safe to assume that Clearing will be competitive again this year, with mid to lower tariff universities trying to make up decreasing numbers. Knowing that they might get better offers by applying directly through Clearing, it could be possible that more 18-year-olds are waiting to go through this application route than previously. It’s important to start promoting Clearing early to make sure that prospective students understand the process, whilst also employing a robust nurturing process.

Hopefully international numbers continue to increase for higher tariff institutions, and they won’t try to make up for international shortfalls by going after domestic students through Clearing. None of this is a guarantee though. Universities need to ensure that they’re nurturing leads and making sure that queries are responded to quickly, so that prospective students feel valued from the beginning. Focusing on local initiatives and outreach programmes that help low-income students feel confident in applying to university is also necessary, as is making sure that information is readily available and straightforward for stealth students.

Odette Treadwell is an Education Research Strategist, in the Penna Education team. If you’re looking to further discuss these findings, or would like to know more about tailored strategies and expert advice regarding your recruitment needs, get in touch with our team at pennaeducation@penna.com, or call us at 07565899390.